Sunday, April 20, 2008

Expelled Box Office 43% Above Expectations

The full weekend estimates for Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed are in, and these numbers indicate that it will end up doing 43% better than expectations. Before the weekend, I found 3 estimates which averaged $2.2 million. The indications are that it will end up at $3.153 million, which is 43% above estimates and a huge opening for a documentary.

Several important observations: while it ended up 9th overall, it ended up #5 in per screen average, and #3 in per screen average on Sunday. This is a very key number, because it means it was successful for theater owners, and they are likely to keep it around longer.

Another very interesting number is the change from Saturday to Sunday. Most movies in the top ten lost 30-45%. This film lost only 3%. Does this indicate growing momentum through word of mouth buzz, or simply groups going during daytime showings? Or both? Could the actual numbers for Sunday be even better? It will be interesting to see how it does on Monday.


At April 21, 2008 5:41 AM, Blogger Mr_G said...

From "'Expelled' could exceed box-office forecasts - Los Angeles Times":

[Executive producer] Ruloff said the film could top the $23.9-million opening for Michael Moore's polemic against President Bush, "Fahrenheit 9/11," the best launch ever for a documentary.,1,4982009.story?

At April 21, 2008 7:47 AM, Anonymous lawrence said...

That article also said:

"Expelled," with production and marketing budgets in the single-digit millions, is expected to make no dent at the box-office despite the widest documentary release ever, at more than 1,000 theaters.

There is a difference between "expectations" and what a film "could do." No one could predict what word of mouth and the controversy factor would do - and when. This week and next will show what word of mouth will do.

At April 21, 2008 6:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It speaks volumes that creationists are trying to make it look like Expelled did something it did not do - succeed. Despite the multimillion dollar marketing budget and its opening in more theaters than any other documentary, Expelled had a measly 3 million dollar take and a mere 1 thousand dollar per theater average. Comparing it to Micheal Moore's Farenheit 911, which opened in about half as many theaters and had an opening take of 23 million, it was a dismal failure. Only when you leave out key numbers does Expelled look like it was a success. What purpose you would do such a thing escapes me at the moment, other than why not lie about a film filled with lies.

At April 21, 2008 9:38 PM, Blogger Larry Fafarman said...

I think that the movie has done a lot to change people's thinking about evolution. For example, as a result of tne movie, a lot more people are aware now of the link between Darwin and Hitler.

At April 21, 2008 11:12 PM, Anonymous lawrence said...


Compare Spiderman to Titanic and it's a big failure too. By your standards every documentary except one has been a huge failure.

Why do you folks always think that false accusations of "lying" are a substitute for evidence and good logic?

At April 22, 2008 12:37 AM, Anonymous Ken McKnight said...

Yes, it will be interesting to see how it does on Monday. Let's check Expelled was the only movie in the top 50 whose box office receipts went DOWN on Saturday. And it didn't lose 3% on Sunday, it lost 20%, and this was on top of an 18% drop on Saturday. The final figures show it didn't break $3 million for the weekend. The PR guy at the Tempe preview said they would consider $12 to 15 million on the first weekend to be a success. They got 1/4 of that. Are you ready to admit that Expelled is a crushing disappointment?

At April 22, 2008 6:09 PM, Blogger Foxfier, formerly Sailorette said...

*cough* So, the folks who went and spent the day with their family on Sat saw the movie on Friday and Sunday?

AND it was in the top ten at only a bit over 1k screens?

Sounds like it appeals to adults, not the kids who have Sat. free, but have to get to bed on Sunday.

At May 05, 2008 1:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, it's doing so well 385 theaters have dropped it already.

At May 05, 2008 1:39 AM, Blogger Foxfier, formerly Sailorette said...

Gee, and all it takes is a legal order not to allow opening at any new theators....

At June 28, 2008 12:34 PM, Blogger Foxfier, formerly Sailorette said...

Oh, wow!


An anonymous moron who shows up months late, throws some feces and runs off!

Tell me, Oh Liberal Tolerant Oracle, were they also "teh gehy"? Or maybe you'd just go with "lamer". I'm frankly shocked you couldn't work Mr. Stein's religion into that somehow-- are you feeling ill?

At October 22, 2008 11:05 PM, Blogger Foxfier, formerly Sailorette said...

(Replace "expelled" with "unsigned anon posters" and I'll agree.)


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